Obama: Rocky Road Ahead?

From John P. Judis in the New Republic:
Confidence talk can backfire if actual, rather than virtual, growth in employment and output doesn't materialize. Herbert Hoover found that out after the Crash of 1929. So did Ronald Reagan in his first two years in office, when his and his aides' "rosy scenarios" about an imminent economic revival were ridiculed. Reagan's approval went from 73 percent in March 1981 to 42 percent the next year, when unemployment rate rose to nearly 11 percent. His popularity and his party's standing only began to recover when the economy did in late 1983.
There is reason to be worried that we're still a long way from seeing growth rather than slower decline. Much of a recovery will rest on a growth in consumer demand, but the most recent figures show a 0.4 percent decline in retail spending from March to April--and an 11.4 percent decline from the previous April. That's not the stuff of growth . . . .
As consumer demand continues to plummet and actual joblessness continues to soar, I expect Obama's popularity to suffer. Obama's real test of leadership may not turn out to have been his first 100 days, but those 100 or 200 days that begin sometime late next fall. If unemployment is still rising, will he still be able to convince Congress, which will have become grey-haired over growing deficits, to pass another equally large stimulus program? If the bank bailout doesn't merely get a "C," but fails, will he be able to resist pressure from the American Bankers Association and take the next step of nationalizing failing banks?
One can only wait and hope.