Our thanks to Save Jersey for allowing us to reprint this cogent post election analysis from our friend, Matt Rooney:
We’ll drill down more on the numbers in the days and weeks ahead, Save Jerseyans, but… wow.
What else can we say??
President-elect Donald Trump trailed Kamala Harris by only 4.8-points in New Jersey on Wednesday morning around 1:00 a.m. with 88% reporting. That’s the closest margin in a New Jersey presidential contest since 1992 when Bill Clinton edged out George H. W. Bush by a little over 2-points (42.95% to 40.58%).
I had warned you that this COULD be the closest finish for a Republican here in a long time. One Cygnal poll predicted a 12-point race. Few believed a low single digit showing was in the cards.
No Republican has carried the state since 1988. Trump just did better than Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney who all lost by double digit margins (except Dubya who did a hair better than 7-points in the aftermath of 9/11). Donald Trump is also presently winning FIVE (!!!) New Jersey counties which he lost in 2020: Cumberland (50.8%), Morris (50.8%), Passaic (50.0%), Atlantic (51.0%), Gloucester (50.8%). Some of the local results are even more astounding: Kamala Harris won North Bergen (Hudson County) by a mere 8,928 to Trump’s 8,083. It previously voted 2-1 for Biden in 2020. North Bergen is 70% Hispanic!
New Jersey Republicans now have a choice heading into 2025, a gubernatorial AND Assembly cycle…
Are they going to embrace the man who’s proven better suited than any of their preferred country club Republicans at building a winning Garden State coalition? A working class, multi-racial party with a strong bench of leaders and influencers? And policies that not only advance our core principles but also appeal to a broad base of supporters?
Or stubbornly persist in believing, despite all available evidence, that Trump and his movement are a hinderance?
But like I said: more on that later. I’ve got a whisky to finish, then bed.
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