Double Digit GOP Lead Looms Over Fall Races!

The 2022 midterm elections are now 109 days away, and Republicans have 10-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 49% of likely U.S. voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The Republican lead is up two points from last week, when they led 48%-40%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

In July 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a seven-point advantage (47% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. likely voters was conducted on July 17-21, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 17-point advantage among independents. While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, just 79% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 44% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of whites, 27% of Black voters and 41% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Black voters, 34% of whites and 44% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (53%) now eight points more likely than women voters (45%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was five points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 13-point margin, 48% to 35%, but 55% of voters ages 40-64 and 54% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.Republican support is highest among retirees, while Democrats do best among government employees.

Republicans lead 52%-37% among voters with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, while Democrats have the same 15-point advantage, 52% to 37%, among voters with annual incomes over $200,000.