2024 US Presidential Election: The Economist Forecast (chance of winning) May 28 Trump: 57% Biden: 42% . JUNE 14 Trump: 69% Biden: 31% — Electoral votes Trump 301 Biden 237 — Projected vote margin in swing states • Pennsylvania: Trump +3 • Georgia: Trump +4 • Arizona: Trump +4 • Nevada: Trump +3 • Wisconsin: Trump +2 • Michigan: Trump +1
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