2024 General Election: The Economist Forecast
Chances of winning
Trump: 65%
Biden: 35%
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Projected vote margin in swing states
• Georgia: Trump +4
• Arizona: Trump +3
• Pennsylvania: Trump +2
• Wisconsin: Trump +2
• Nevada: Trump +2
• Michigan: Trump +1
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odds
Trump: 56%
Biden: 35%
RFK Jr: 2%
swing states odds
polymarket.com/elections
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economist.com/interactive/us
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