Isn't it a shame that we even have to ask such a question? After all, there is such a thing as democracy, right? And the two major political parties can and should be competitive -- or so it would seem. Democrats talk a lot about democracy these days and, truth to tell, democracy really is on the line in New Jersey, but not in the way Democrats would have you believe.
That's because for too long, entrenched, boss-driven, one-party Democrat rule has been the norm in the Garden State. Consider that New Jersey hasn’t elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Clifford Case won re-election in 1972. That's 53 years ago!
And, since 1992, the state has voted Democrat for president every time, and Democrats have held both legislative chambers almost continuously since 2004. Even the 2024 Senate race—amid scandal and machine turmoil—ended with that scoundrel, Democrat Bob Menendez winning again. And that happened pretty much on his way to jail!
Beyond all that, New Jersey hasn't elected a Republican governor since Chris Christie was re-elected in 2013.
That’s the pattern. But patterns have causes—and, hopefully, openings.
First, why the blue tilt endures
1) Registration math (and “unaffiliateds”): The largest bloc of New Jersey voters is unaffiliated, but Democrats still maintain a sizable statewide registration edge over Republicans, even though the GOP has made some significant registartion gains recently. Sadly, this structural advantage still frames every statewide race before a single ad airs.
2) Demographics and institutions: New Jersey is highly educated, densely suburban/urban, and one of the most diverse states in the country—profiles that, in the Trump/Biden era, tend to lean Democratic. The state also has one of the nation’s highest unionization rates (especially in the public sector), which has historically aligned with Democrats’ brand -- most notably the very powerful teachers' union, the NJEA.
3) Machine politics— with a recent caveat: For decades, the “county line” ballot design gave party-endorsed candidates prime placement and reinforced county-organization power. A federal judge blew that up just last year, ordering office-block ballots with randomized placement. That makes primaries more competitive—and creates space for insurgents in both parties. But we're still very early into this change and the full ramifications are far from clear, especially in a state that is all-too-comfortable with corruption and entrenched (mostly Democrat) party bosses.
4) Issue salience: New Jersey’s No. 1 kitchen-table complaint is property taxes—the nation’s highest effective rate. Yet, statewide Republicans often fall into the trap of talking Washington culture-war issues first and Jersey pocketbook concerns second. This year, that may reverse itself. We hope so, because when GOP campaigns zero in affordability, property taxes, commuting, schools, and corruption—and offer credible fixes—the record shows that they can prevail, especially when such campaigns are sustained and disciplined. New Jersey voters will cross party lines for a candidate who feels local, pragmatic, and competent. Look at the history:
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Tom Kean (1985): Re-elected in the largest gubernatorial landslide in state history—about 70%—on a largely pragmatic good-government/education message.
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Christine Todd Whitman (1993): Narrowly defeated an incumbent on tax relief and moderation, then won again in 1997 with a similar platform after actually succeeded in lowering the state income tax.
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Chris Christie (2013): Won re-election with about 60%, running as a problem-solver after Sandy, over performing among independents and in traditionally Democratic counties. Wherever possible, Christie avoided ideology and stressed common-sense fixes while adding a uniquely Jersey, scrappy element to the mix.
The through-line in each case: local credibility, fiscal focus, relentless voter contact, and a focused, determined tone that didn’t spook swing voters.
How to actually turn the tide
Own the tax/affordability agenda—and make it specific.
Don’t just rage at “high taxes.” Present a plan of action that credibly trims state-level cost drivers, then tie every dollar saved to property-tax relief mechanics that towns actually feel. Use the same approach tackling the state's raging utility rates.
Go local on issues like schools and commutes.
New Jersey politics is school-board, pothole, and NJ Transit politics. Talk learning loss, school safety, parental rights and parental transparency without demonizing teachers. These are classic "kitchen table" concerns.On transit, for example, talk schedule reliability, capital delivery and quick, visible upgrades -- real, everyday changes that people can understand.
Build a real coalition where Democrats live.
Republicans don’t need to win Essex, Hudson, or Camden but they certainly need to lose them by less, while running up the score in places like Monmouth, Ocean, Morris and counties on or near the south Jersey shore where the GOP brand is surging. That means sustained outreach in Hispanic and Asian communities, police-community trust initiatives in cities, and small-business help in immigrant corridors. As the tireless GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli is demonstrating, “show up” is a strategy, not a slogan.
Recruit borough mayors and county execs.
Voters trust home-grown doers with a record of paving roads on budget. Make mayors and commissioner/executives the face of the party’s statewide ticket and message. That’s how Whitman and Christie sold competence.
Register and convert the unaffiliated.
Target “soft D/lean indie” homeowners in high-tax suburbs. The state’s own data confirm unaffiliateds are the biggest universe—treat them like customers, not an afterthought.
Culture with a Jersey accent.
New Jersey voters will punish preachiness from either side. Keep cultural arguments tethered to respect for parents, safe streets, and common sense solutions and do it with a distinctly Jersey accent. Be real!
Bottom line: New Jersey isn’t destined to vote blue forever. History shows voters will cross the aisle for authenticity and credibility. If Republicans build campaigns around affordability, competence, and community—and court the unaffiliated where they live—the Garden State’s “blue wall” becomes a fence you can open. Jack Ciattarelli has already started opening that fence and, with lessons learned from previously successful campaigns, can show New Jersey the way back to democracy once again.
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