I'm fairly confident that at 1 PM today New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will announce that he will not seek the GOP presidential nomination.
I believe Christie felt he had to give powerful interests and potential big donor the benefit of the doubt and really, thoroughly reconsider a presidential run one more time. But Christie is a clear-headed, rational guy. He thinks things through as completely as he can. That's what's been going on over the last few days.
Still, all signs point to a no go.
Chris Christie will not run. Here's why:
1) Family. Chris Christie is also a passionate guy. And he's particularly passionate about his family. He has already said that his children are at an age that would make a presidential run difficult, at best. He must consider his obligations to his wife and his children. I believe his family has signed off on a presidential run if that's what he wants. I doubt that they would stand in the way. But Christie will consider them first. And he knows they need him.
2) Finishing the job. There's a lot more work to be done in New Jersey. Christie has a full agenda and more than enough challenges to face in the Garden State where he reigns as the most powerful governor in America. Tackling the state's fiscal mess, improving education, eliminating waste and corruption, creating jobs and (let's not forget this one) actually lowering property taxes: Yeah, there's work to be done!
3) Funding. Barack Obama is expected to raise one billion dollars for his campaign. And Obama's organization is already in place. Romney has already tapped many big donors and is far ahead of his GOP rivals in raising dough. Romney's organization is also in place. Raising money and setting up an organization are big, big tasks that are not undertaken without lots of planning and lots of people on board. It's = late in the game for all that -- and getting later by the minute,
4) Findng time. Running New Jersey (especially according to the Chris Christie template) is more than a full time job. Christie is a whirlwind. He has a great staff and a sharp mind and enormous energy and he go do lots of things at once. But it's hard to imagine how he can run New Jersey and run for president. That's daunting! Day-to-day operations would have to be given over to the Lieutenant Governor. She's thoroughly capable but it obviously wouldn't be the same as having Chris Christie at the helm. And that's what New Jerseyans signed up for.
5) Following his own rules and statements. Christie does not like to revisit decisions. He spent time rethinking a run because very powerful, serious people are urging him to do so and he feels he owes them that. But this is a man who does not like to change his mind or go back on his word. He says he's not running -- and I think he means it.
Christie will comment on all this soon. He won't be evasive. He won't tease. And right now every indication is that he will say "No."
PS - I predicted all this back on September 27. I stand by my prediction.
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