Those Iowa Caucuses: What To Expect

And so we come to the Sunday before the Iowa caucuses and the speculaton is rampant.
This much is clear: Mitt Romney is doing better than anyone expected. Romney didn't even campaign very much in the state and he's still well-positioned going into the caucuses.
Though don't expect the pundits to admit this. The last thing they want to do is give Romney credit. The dominant media would like to see the GOP field remain as open and as competitive as it can be for as long as possible. They'd love to see Republicans in disarray.
They'd love to see a wacky winner in Iowa -- someone like Ron Paul. Originally many of them had hoped that Michelle Bachmann would win. Then, after she fizzled it was Rick Perry. Then, Gingrich. And of course now the new comer is Rick Santorum.
Frankly, I have to laugh when people say that Romney can only muster 25 to 30% in this field of candidates. It's almost as if an imaginary lid has been placed on Romney's support.
A few points are in order here:
1) 25% or 30% (assuming that's the figure) ain't so bad in an eight-person race. I'm not a math scholar and even I can figure that one out.
2) The other candidates have risen, only to fall: Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich. Meanwhile, Romney's support remains solid. He doesn't wilt.
3) Polls show that Romney is the overwhelming second choice among all of those who support the other candidates. So, Romney stands the most to gain when the field narrows -- and the field will narrow sooner rather than later.
4) In a national matchup -- head-to-head with Obama -- you can forget the 25 - 30% "lid" because Romney bests Obama by six percent right now and Romney is close to that magic 50% figure overall.
No, it won't be a cakewalk for Romney.
This will be a long, tough race. And Obama & Co. have already set their sights on Romney.
Romney will have to be durable and steadfast and feisty to win.
But Romney is the strongest candidate and the one who is best-prepared for the campaign ahead.