How Team Romney Misread Election Prospects

A CBS News story says Mitt Romney and his team were "shellshocked" by Tuesday night's defeat. They thought they had things well in-hand and that they had devised a path to victory -- indeed, several possible paths.
So when things seemed to began to fall apart, Romney and his advisors were at a loss to explain the course of events.  And as states began to be called for Obama, they were dumbstruck.
One by one, the doors to each avenue of victory closed.
Here's an excerpt from the story that describing Team Romney's miscalculations:

1. They misread turnout. They expected it to be between 2004 and 2008 levels, with a plus-2 or plus-3 Democratic electorate, instead of plus-7 as it was in 2008. Their assumptions were wrong on both sides: The president's base turned out and Romney's did not. More African-Americans voted in Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida than in 2008. And fewer Republicans did: Romney got just over 2 million fewer votes than John McCain.
2. Independents. State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren't oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans - there just weren't as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.
3. Undecided voters. The perception is they always break for the challenger, since people know the incumbent and would have decided already if they were backing him. Romney was counting on that trend to continue. Instead, exit polls show Mr. Obama won among people who made up their minds on Election Day and in the few days before the election. So maybe Romney, after running for six years, was in the same position as the incumbent.

Click here to read the whole story.