Wednesday, February 10, 2016

NH Election Night - Notes And Asides

Here are our observations as we watched the New Hampshire returns last night:

It appears Christie will not qualify for the next GOP presidential debate. He's announced he's going home to New Jersey to take consider his future.

Kasich's wife: Gorgeous! Wonderfully classy. Where've they been hiding her? Heard her in an interview this morning and she marvelously well-spoken and articulate. Kasich is like your friendly next-door neighbor. And tonight he's funny, self-deprecating and wonderfully human. Now THIS is a guy you can have a beer with. He's really coming across tonight and seems to have tremendous heart. There's a aw-shucks quality about him that could make us seek out what Lincoln called "the better angels of our nature." Great night for him. Good speech. Fine family. A well-grounded guy.

Trump family looks lovely. Melania -- beautiful! Ivanka - gorgeous! Sometimes I wonder if Trump has A.D.D. He jumps around a lot from one thought and one subject to another. And yet, his seemingly spontaneous, conversational manner is proving to be remarkably effective. It's like he and the crowd are one -- they play off one another. The crowd is part of the speech. It's an adventure. There's something refreshingly unslick about it. In a calculated, drearily predictable, plastic media environment Trump keeps us guessing, surprising us, prodding us, pushing, tugging, making the powers that be uncomfortable. And his speech is short -- not like Bernie's endless rant.

Sanders won't stop talking. Shades of Castro here.

Bernie is also a shouter. Lots of rancor. He points his finger a lot, screams and coughs into his hand. The light reflects, all shiny, across his mostly bald head and his lower lip juts out when his lower teeth aren't jumping up and down in a menacing manner. His audience chants phrases over and over as he literally spits out words like "oligarchy" and demonizes wealth and those who seek it. There's almost a rattle in his voice and a staccato delivery punctuated by finger pointing and repeated chops of the right hand. And then there's the fact that he never discovered blended bifocals. No nuance here. None. Hey, does anyone remember that Ronald Reagan almost never raised his voice? He didn't need to.

Instead of conceding, Hillary is giving a campaign speech. And she's shouting -- shouting, loudly! It's not a bad speech but she's shrill and she doesn't know where to pause or how to vary the tone of her voice. She's just a horrible speaker. Horrible!

VERY TIGHT for third place: Cruz, Bush, Rubio. But be sure of this: Kasich will be media darling tomorrow.

KASICH WINS SECOND PLACE. Remember what I've been saying all week: "Watch out for Kasich."

Remember this: Trump is VERY strong in southern states, He goes into South Carolina with a head of steam and is well positioned for the later "southern sweep" SEC states. And as long as he keeps his opposition divided (a buncha guys fighting over 10, 11, 12%) he's impenetrable.

Beat up 'ole Steinem and Albright helped guarantee a crushing defeat for Hillary tonight.

Kasich's Achilles heel: He's low on funds and doesn't have strong organizations in future primary states.Hillary's Achilles cankle: The more people see her, the less they like her or trust her -- and possible serious legal woes lie ahead.mHello, Uncle Joe . . . ? Hello?

"Incredibly," Sanders is winning among women tonight.

If GOP cannot settle on ONE alternative to Trump he stands to roll on. Yes?

Looks like this will be 1, 2, 3: Trump, Kasich, Bush.

No Republican has become the nominee in the last 40 years without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. By this yardstick, your GOP nominee this year will be Cruz or Trump.

Message tonight: Voters are angry, fed up with "establishment" across the board.

It will be a HUGE victory for Trump from all indications.

Kasich, Bush, Rubio bunched for second place with Kasich (who had final momentum) seeming to have the edge.

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