With the midterms elections now less than a year away, Republicans have a double-digit lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 51% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 38% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
In January 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held an eight-point advantage (45% to 37%) in the generic ballot question. That margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans maintained control of the Senate.
The 13-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a wide advantage among independents. While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s candidate, only 77% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 48% would vote Republican and 26% would vote Democrats, with another 17% undecided.
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