From our friends at Save Jersey (reposted with permission):
The closest finish? Bush’s son, George W. Bush, who in the midst of patriotic post-9/11 fervor lost the Garden State by *only* 6.68% versus John Kerry in 2004.
Could 2024 track 2004? A brand new Emerson poll released Tuesday found former President Donald Trump trailing President Joe Biden by only 5-points (42% to 36%) in a five-way match-up including the current crop of third party contenders. Biden leads by 7-points in a strictly two-way race (46% to 39%) while 15% of those polled remain undecided seven months before Election Day which is still pretty damn close by historic standards.
Biden carried New Jersey by nearly 16-points in 2020. Registered Republicans were outnumbered by registered Democrats in New Jersey by 936,775 as of March 1st. Emerson found the Democrat incumbent’s approval rating well underwater (40% approve, 47% disapprove).
Trump, who spends considerable time at his Bedminister, New Jersey golf club especially in the summer months, signaled back in January that he envisioned making a “heavy play” for the Garden State, the state that is also the former home of his late-20th century casino empire.
Click here to check out the full polling report.
The survey was conducted between March 26th and 29th and consisted of 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
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