Our friend Matt Rooney of Save Jersey will be one of the moderators of tomorrow night's New Jersey Republican gubernatorial debate and he's got us looking forward to the Big Event which will be held on the Rider University campus. In fact, we'll be there tomorrow night and we hope you'll be watching the debate via the New Jersey Globe on facebook, twitter, youtube or other sources shown above.
If you watch the debate, here are five things to remember:
1) Though it sits between two huge media markets, New Jersey remains a media desert. The Garden State has no discernible statewide radio or TV outlet and no state newspaper. New York and Philadelphia media simply pretend to cover New Jersey. Truth is, they don't. They cover (Big Surprise!) New York and Philadelphia. They leaves a very big vacuum.
2) To run statewide in New Jersey and reach the state's voters, a candidate needs tons of money to pay for all the big time advertising that will be necessary in (you guessed it!) New York and Philadelphia -- two of the costliest ad markets in the country.
3) Precisely because of what we've just pointed out, in New Jersey, name recognition counts. New Jersey voters often don't have a lot to go by, so if you start with a recognizable name, you've got a leg up. That's why we have Governor Kean and Congressman Kean and we had Senator Menendez and still have Congressman Menendez and there's George (aka King George) Norcross and Congressman Norcross. Without a well known name, you'll pretty much have to buy your way into office á la Phil Murphy, John Corzine and Frank Lautenberg. See a pattern here?
4) Retail politics matters. Since New Jersey is, geographically, a relatively small state, it's easy to get around in. You can traverse the whole state in a single day. So, person-to-person retail politics counts here and you can begin to make a dent in the electorate by pressing the flesh. That's why campaign buses and diner tours and stops at community events are popular in New Jersey. Yes, you still need money, but relentlessly, day after day, this is the way a candidate like Chris Christie presented himself as a real "Jersey Guy" and became known here.
5) New Jersey voters are notoriously late deciders. Polls can be tricky here because New Jersey voters are tied up with other things. They're stuck in traffic, so busy running kids here and there or trying to earn enough to pay the state's ridiculously high taxes that, incredibly, they don't focus on politics and candidates until it's almost too late. In the run up to the election, when they do decide, they sometimes manage to finally tilt the outcome in ways that defy expectations; but really big upsets remain rare. Mostly, New Jersey voters have reverted to form -- i.e. they vote Democrat. If you doubt this, take a look at our review of statewide NJ voting habits from 1961 onward. Let's hope we're finally able to break this dismal pattern.
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