New Jersey A 'Swing' State? Not So Fast!

New Jersey Governors, from left: Kean, Byrne, Cahill, Hughes, Meyner.

Is New Jersey politically a "swing state?"

In light of President Trump's strong showing here, some people think it is. But I'm not so sure and I've got 62 years of history to back me up. So now, let's take a deep plunge into New Jersey political history, starting way back when:

1961: After eight years of Bob Meyner as governor, New Jersey appears ready to elect a Republican and the GOP fields a strong candidate in former US Labor Secretary James Mitchell. The Republicans catch a break when the leading Democrat candidate suffers a heart attack and is replaced by a little known former jurist from Burlington county named Richard J. Hughes. Hughes goes on to score a stunning upset, slipping into office by fewer than 35,000 votes. Hughes winds up serving two terms, gaining national prominence and enacting a state sales tax. His vistory turns out to portend what's to come.

1973: Infighting within the GOP forces incumbent Governor Bill Cahill into a primary battle that he loses to conservative Republican Congressman Charles Sandman. The Democrats again turn to an obscure, little known jurist named Brendan Byrne who they pitch as "the man who couldn't be bought" despite the fact that he has the unanimous support of the corrupt Hudson County Democrat machine. Byrne wins in a landslide.

1977: This looks like a sure win for the GOP as Byrne originally claimed that a personal income tax would not be necessary for "the foreseeable future" but then "muscles through" the unpopular tax, New Jersey's first. It earns him the nickname "One-Term Byrne". As the campaign begins, three-quarters of voters disapprove of Byrne's job performance and in polls taken that summer, he trails his Republican opponent, popular State Senator Ray Bateman by 17 points. Astoundingly, Byrne goes on to easily win re-election, garnering 56% of the vote.

Lautenberg: Petty, nasty.

1978: New Jersey Republicans appear clueless (and stunned!) when a young, fire branding conservative named Jeff Bell upsets popular four-term US Senator Clifford Case in the GOP primary. Bell goes on to lose this once solid Republican seat to NBA star Bill Bradley and Case achieves the dubious distinction of being the last Republican US Senator from New Jersey. 

Yes, it's now been 52 years since a Republican has been elected to the US Senate from Jersey. But, for now, back to the history.

Torricelli: Ethics problems.

1982: After Tom Kean gains a GOP gubernatorial victory by the narrowest of margins, New Jersey Republicans finally appear to be in the ascendency and they see a chance to capture the US Senate seat long held by Harrison "Pete" Williams who has been implicated in the Abscam scandal and forced to resign. The GOP nominates popular Congresswoman Millicent Fenwick who has gained national recognition as a shrewd, scrupulously honest, savvy public servant. The antidote to rampant corruption, Fenwick enters the general election race with an 18 point lead in the polls. Then, an unknown millionaire businessman, Frank Lautenberg, who has never held public office scores an upset in the Democrat primary and self-funds a campaign that floods the airwaves with ads targeting Fenwick. Despite running one of the most negative campaigns in New Jersey history, Lautenberg goes on to win by nearly 100,000 votes and becomes one of the most powerful (and meanest) politicians in the history of New Jersey.

Menendez: Indicted, convicted. 

1984: Bill Bradley is easily re-elected to the US Senate with 65 percent of the vote defeating Montclair Mayor Mary Mochary. It's a cakewalk for the man who came to be known as Dollar Bill for his reliability on the hooops court when he played for the New York Knicks.

McGreevey: Sex scandal.

1988: Lautenberg, again! He seeks re-election and starts out way behind in the polls against a solid GOP candidate, Brigadier General Pete Dawkins who's also a Heisman Trophy winner and a West Point graduate. And again, Lautenberg runs a negative campaign engineered by Cajun street-fighter James Carville. In a race termed one of the nastiest in American political history, Lautenberg comes from behind to win with 54 percent of the vote.

1989: Just four short years after Tom Kean scores the biggest gubernatorial election victory ever (winning with 70% of the vote and carrying every county in the state) two-time gubernatorial loser Jim Florio comes along and recaptures the governor's office for the Democrats with more than 60% of the vote against GOP candidate Jim Courter. 

1990: Finally Bill Bradley seems vulnerable. A controversy over a state income tax increase—on which he refused to take a position—and his proposal on merit pay for teachers (which leads the NJEA to support his opponent) turns his once-obscure rival for the Senate, future governor Christine Todd Whitman into a viable candidate. GOP hopes rise again as Whitman wages a vigorous campaign. But in the end, it's a heartbreaker as Bradley is re-elected with just 50.4 percent of the vote. Bradley later proclaims US politics "broken" and announces this will be his last term.

1994: This is the year of the "Republican Revolution" when Newt Gingrich upends the Clinton presidency by scoring dramatic wins all across the country via his "Contract With America" which effectively nationalizes House and Senate elections -- except in New Jersey. So, Frank Lautenberg wins again, eking out a 50-47 percent win over Republican Chuck Haytaian. Sorry, Jersey!

1996 - Senator Bill Bradley's out of the race so the Democrats nominate Democrat Congressman Robert (Bob) Torricelli. The GOP goes with a legislator as well and chooses Congressman Dick Zimmer as its candidate. In early September Zimmer leads in the polls but the race tightens and Torricelli goes on to win by 10 percentage points.

2000: After going back and forth, Frank Lautenberg chooses not to run for re-election to the US Senate, fearing he will be opposed by one of two  popular Republicans, Governor Christie Whitman or former Governor Tom Kean. But neither one chooses to run and the GOP nominates Congressman Bob Franks while the Democrats bring in a Wall Street financier (and Illinois native!) Jon Corzine who spends more than $62 million of his own money on his campaign, the most expensive Senate campaign in U.S. history up till that point. So, Corzine starts out as a virtual unknown, is socially awkward and as out of his element in New Jersey as you can imagine, yet he bests Franks by three percentage points. Kaboom!

And so now we're into the 21st century and yes, from 1961 up to the present we've had some successes, most notably four elected GOP governors (Cahill, Kean, Whitman and Christie) three of whom managed to serve two full terms. But, those remain the exceptions over this 62-year period and  from 2000 onward these other losses continued to pile up:

2001: In the gubernatorial race Jim Mc Greevey, the Mayor of Woodbridge garners 56 percent of the vote, easily defeating Republican Brett Schundler. At the same time the Democrats carry both houses of the state legislature. 

2002: The GOP sees another rosy opportunity to win back a US Senate seat when Senator Bob Torricelli faces corruption charges and gets mired in a nasty federal ethics probe. Torricelli trails the GOP candidate, Doug Forrester who appears to be headed toward a landmark victory. But then the Democrats pull a switcheroo, forcing "The Torch" (Torricelli) to drop out of the race on September 30 and turning to former senator Frank Lautenberg to replace him. The GOP cries foul, challenges this seemingly unprecedented move and seeks to have Torricelli's name remain on the ballot, citing election law. The case goes to the New Jersey Supreme Court which allows the 11th hour Democrat maneuver and Lautenberg defeats Forrester by nearly 10 percentage points. Foiled again!

2005: In a race that rivals the 2002 US Senate race for its shenanigans, Democrat Governor Jim McGreevey resigns his office after coming out as gay, admitting to an affair with another man and facing a possible sexual harassment lawsuit from Golan Cipel, an Israeli national and McGreevey-appointed Counsel to the Governor. Once again, the Democrats turn to a US Senator (this time Jon Corzine) to plug a hole at the top of their ticket. And once again, the GOP turns to Doug Forrester to see if this time he could win. But Forrester is vastly outspent by Corzine ($38 million to $19 million) and losses the election by nearly 10 percentage points. Sexual scandals, corruption, switcheroos -- none of it seems to matter. New Jersey voters still go with the Democrat.

2006 - New Jersey takes a Very Bad Turn when it elects Bob Menendez (an interim appointee after Corzine resigned to become Governor) to the Unites States Senate. Menendez defeats an outstanding candidate, State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. Menendez wins with 53 percent of the vote and so begins one of the most sordid and shameful political chapters in the history of a state (and a party) riddled with corruption.

2008 - Lautenberg (who we could have and should have been defeated way back in 1982) gets re-elected to the senate easily defeating Congressman Dick Zimmer with 56 percent of the vote. You remember Zimmer. He ran against Torricelli in 1996 and lost then, too. Bummer!

2012 - Crusty Bob Menendez wins re-election to a second full term, becoming the first Democrat Senate candidate to carry Somerset County since Bill Bradley in 1984. This is the only time since 1976 that a candidate for this seat receives over 55 percent of the vote. This election also marks the first time that someone wins this seat by double digits since 1976. And yes, Menendez largely wins on being the first Hispanic American to hold the seat. In fact, he not only beats his GOP opponent (Joe Kyrillos) but he also wins by one percent more than President Obama who is also re-elected.

2013 - An weird year. Frank Lautenberg has died in office. Republican Governor Chris Christie refuses to appoint any interim senator who might seek a full term in the seat, thus giving no GOP candidate a leg up on this open position. So, Christie appoints Jeffrey Chiesa as a placeholder and, in an unusual move, announces that a primary election to fill the vacancy will take place on August 13, 2013 with a special election to follow on October 16. Why? Christie has a cozy relationship with Democrat Newark Mayor Cory Booker who wants the senate seat and this move allows Christie to benefit himself politically, believing that his likely Democratic opponent in the same year's November gubernatorial election would benefit from African-American Booker's presence on the ballot, inspiring a higher turnout from minority voters. The expected light turnout in the October special election gives Booker and easy win and he beats his GOP opponent (Steve Lonegan) 55 percent to 44 percent.

2014 - Booker is easily elected to his first full term in the US Senate defeating Republican candidate Jeffrey Bell (who ran way back in 1978) by more than a quarter of a million votes. So, in back-to-back elections, Booker is basically handed a free ride. Bingo!

2017 - After two terms as Governor, Republican Chris Christie (only the fourth Republican to lead the state in 60+ years) can't run again. The GOP nominates his Lieutenant Governor, Kim Gudagno. But, in a familiar scenario, she faces a Democrat opponent (Phil Murphy) who pretty much purchases his party's nomination, then floods the campaign with money ($35 million, total) and wins with 56 percent of the vote. 

2018 - Dirty Bob Menendez is up for re-election. Everybody knows he's corrupt and on the take. In fact Menendez is charged with corruption, indicted by the feds, brought to trial and not only remains in office but retains the support of the Democrat Party establishment. He feels empowered after his trial ends in a mistral (mind you, he's not exonerated) and, even though his race against Republican Bob Hugin is originally rated a "tossup," Murky Menendez goes on to win by a 11.2 percent margin. It's Joizee, hon!

2020 - Senator Cory Booker comes up for re-election alongside Joe Biden who's at the top of the Democrat ticket. This is a Covid election in which all the rules are changed and, even though Booker starts as the favorite, the deck is further stacked on his behalf. The primary is moved to July and early voting and mail in ballots are now the norm. Booker easily defeats his GOP opponent, Rik Mehta, garnering 57 percent of the vote and piling up the most votes (2,541,239) in a statewide non-presidential election in New Jersey history. Blessed Boy Booker triumphs again!

2021 - Not since Brendan Byrne in 1977 has any Democrat governor been re-elected. Florio was defeated after one term, McGreevey resigned and Corzine was defeated after one term. The odds simply don't favor the incumbent, Phil Murphy. What's more, Murphy's an ideologue and Massachusetts native while his GOP challenger, Jack Ciattarelli is a real, nuts 'n bolts Jersey Guy -- engaging, likable and authentic. Ciattarelli runs a spirited "Let's Fix NJ" campaign and seems to be everywhere, all over the state at once. Still, Murphy prevails with just 51 percent of the vote and breaks the Democrat second term jinx. Some solace: This marks the first single-digit Democratic win in a governor's election since 1961(back where we started. at the top of our list) and Ciattarelli receives the most votes for a Republican since 2013 when Christie overwhelmingly won his bid for re-election. 

2024 - The feds have finally nailed Bad Boy Bob. Menendez is caught with cash, gold bars and other goodies, convicted of federal corruption charges and forced to resign from the senate. After Murphy fails in an audacious bid to place his wife in the seat, Congressman Andy Kim becomes the Democrat nominee, facing Cape May county hotelier Curtis Bashaw. It's unprecedented as two South Jerseyans face off in a high-profile statewide race. This is a good year for the GOP all over the country and after electing the sleazy Menendez three times you would think New Jerseyans would learn their lesson and turn to the other party, especially since the GOP candidate is an attractive, articulate, squeaky clean, non-politician and civic minded newcomer. Nope! They give the nod to Kim who garners nearly 54 percent of the vote. Though it's the closest US Senate election in the state in nearly 20 years, "almost" doesn't count.

Bottom line: We've chronicled more than 20 statewide elections since 1961 here and the Democrats won all of 'em. Plus, they consistently won by a margin pretty much falling into the 53 to 57 percent range. It's a clear pattern, and it mostly prevailed even in races that were considered close. Yes, the GOP won seven statewide gubernatorial races during this period. But the list of defeated Republicans (several in heartbreaking races) is long and tortuous. Democrats can be corrupt. They can enact onerous fees, taxes and strangling regulations. They can be arrogant, officious, dismissive and flagrantly woke -- and yet the voters of New Jersey still continue to elect them and re-elect them. No one is suggesting we should ever lose hope. But for the GOP in Jersey, winning statewide remains a decidedly steep climb.