Sunday, July 12, 2015

Iran Deal? Remember That North Korea Agreement?

From our friends at Save Jersey:

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog
What never ceases to amaze me about modern liberalism, Save Jerseyans, more than anything else (and there’s PLENTY to make you wonder), is the extent to which its adherents cling to it even after it has repeatedly failed – spectacularly – over time.

I could, and have, given you a ponderous list of examples on the domestic and foreign policy fronts.

One example in particular looms large this Sunday on the eve of what looks like a new nuclear deal with Iran; I’m referring to President Bill Clinton’s 1994 nuclear agreement with North Korea, a process initiated by famous foreign policy lightweight Jimmy Carter:

21 years later?

North Korea has somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 nuclear weapons.

Here’s my open challenge: I’d like ONE liberal Obama supporter who frequents this blog, and I know you’re out there, to explain to me what’s different about Iran? In 2015?

We’ve been down this road.

Has human nature fundamentally changed? Is America’s geo-political position inexplicably stronger today than it was in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War? Was the then-supreme leader of North Korean any more trustworthy (or less bat shit crazy) than the incumbent supreme leader of Iran?

I’ll wait patiently but don’t take too long to come up with a satisfying response, liberal friends: the clock benefits the most destabilizing force in the Middle East.


Radu Gherman said...

Well, since it’s been a long time between comments, I guess I’ll take a shot at it.
The simple answer to your question is…nada. Nothing. Niente. By that I mean that no rational adult (and most high achieving children) expect Iran to infinitely go without a nuclear bomb. They will get one sooner or later. There’s no closing that Pandora’s box.

The more nuanced answer is that although Iran will develop/buy/steal a nuclear device, or many, the only thing that the “world” can do is influence the political and diplomatic context which is to include a nuclear Iran.

The simple fact is that the average American’s recollection about Persian-American relations starts in 1979. One could argue that the Iranian people have some legitimate gripes and grievances with the “west” going back to the Treaty of Golestan. You can begin to understand a people’s resentment toward us when our shining city upon a hill decides to use its beacon to overthrow their democratically-elected government. And since the revolution, and 1979, the image of the Iranian people has been defined by that resentment, and the actions that it caused. And that’s fair too. Hostages and a spiral into theocratic vigilantism are not good for the “world”. Let’s just not pretend that this present situation happened upon us because of some religious belief or the fact that “they hate our freedom.”

1979 happened not too long ago, but it predates me by some years. It predates about half of their population. The feelings of hatred and resentment felt vividly by those who were there in 1979 have to be passed down to those that were not there. And they are better absorbed by younger generations if there are tangible things to point to that demonstrate the “evil” that defines the West there. Like it or not, sanctions do that. Rhetoric does that. And keeping our ball at home and not talking to them does that as well. It is an infallible law of the universe that people get old, and die and that their ideas and beliefs can die with them. I hope that this agreement can help that along.

Iranians have shown that they are moving toward a more moderate stance. Not one of the many that I’ve met all over the world has tried to blow me up or convert me to Islam. And it just so happens that Rouhani is demonstrably less bat-shit crazy than Ahmadinejad. Maybe the next guy follows the trend. The Ayatollah is going to die someday. Let’s hope the trend continues there as well.

And that’s the point. We can either engage in dialogue, buy time for those hardened in their ways to leave this world and let those that have seen change carry Iran into the future. Or we can plug our ears and shut our eyes and hope for war or a miracle. Your call.

Dan Cirucci said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dan Cirucci said...

Great to hear from you, Radu.
E-mail me and let me know what you're up to these days.
You were one of my best students and always offer crisp insights.