From someone in NJ posting on X:
I'm not going to say that Ciatarelli should've won. It was a 10-point loss. That out of the way? I live in an exurban part of South Jersey, and my voting location got a ton of turnout.
But it was also a joke as far as security went. I could walk in, give my name and address, and simply go vote. There was no need to present ID. There was "technically" signature verification, but not really. My signature didn't even come close to matching the one they had on file because they had me sign with my finger on a touch screen rather than a stylus.
That presented no issue. I simply went in and voted. If this is how lax election day voting is, then I shudder to think about what early voting... either by mail or in person... looks like. Is turnout so high because we've made it this easy to pretend to vote as other people?
And then, THIS -- from Quantas polling:
We were disappointed, and honestly, angry over our New Jersey polling. Our first September Labor Day poll showed Sherrill +10. By late September, after debates, campaign controversies, and the Kirk assassination, everything changed. The race tightened fast. More Republicans entered the likely electorate and independents started breaking for Ciattarelli.
We confirmed this again in late October: Sherrill +3 from a random sample of 100,000 NJ voters showing Republicans fired up and turning out. However, the Democrats were holding the edge and keeping a breakout from occurring. We rather easily detected potential for a +5 to +6 Sherrill victory despite our polling showing +3. Notably, Sherrill was only marginally improving with Hispanic voters, showing similar margins to 2024.
While our last poll did show black voters finally swinging her way. We had Ciatt at single digit support among black voters. Then election night happened and the results stunned nearly everyone. Exit polls, turnout, demographic margins, and the final numbers made little sense compared to virtually every public survey. It wasn’t just us. 99% of pollsters missed it at similar scale. Something unusual happened in New Jersey, and we’re still unpacking why.