By Matt Rooney
Reposted with permission from Save Jersey:
Democrats are well out ahead in New Jersey’s early vote, and they lead registered Republicans by just over 14,000 ballots in NJ-02 as we enter into the final days of Election 2026. That is a meaningful turnout gap and likely an indicator of lopsided enthusiasm for plenty of obvious reasons. Early vote numbers aren’t a poll, however, and they don’t tell us how anyone voted.
But I won’t say “chill,” Save Jerseyans.
Statewide, 952,656 ballots had been cast: 560,273 by registered Democrats and 220,467 by Republicans. Compared with the same point last year, Democratic early turnout was up by about 42,000 while Republican turnout was down by roughly 63,000. Those figures measure party registration, not candidate support.
The county figures add context. In counties fully within NJ-02, registered Democrats lead in Atlantic, Cumberland, Salem and Cape May. Cape May is close: 6,347 Democrats to 5,736 Republicans. Countywide, Republicans narrowly lead in Ocean, while Democrats lead in Gloucester; only portions of those counties fall within the district.
An underexplored point among X’s legion of armchair election analysts: we don’t yet know whether Republicans will shift back to Election Day voting this year.
The conventional wisdom is that parties benefit from banking votes early. Republicans have historically relied more on Election Day voting, thought that pattern is not automatic. Jack Ciattarelli urged supporters to vote early in 2025 and invested heavily in it. The RSLC announced a $2 million canvassing and get-out-the-vote effort in New Jersey and Virginia, while Early Vote Action NJ reported about $507,000 in spending for Ciattarelli. The $2 million covered canvassing across two states, not early voting alone.
No such effort exists this cycle and it’s showing.
Van Drew’s recent results and fundraising also remain important context. He won by a lot and with a remarkably stable percentage (approximately 58%) in both 2022 and 2024, and Trump carried the district by about 12 points in 2024. Through October 14th, Van Drew had nearly $895,000 in cash on hand, compared with roughly $105,000 for Mullock; Mullock did benefit from nearly $1.5 million in recent outside spending from a single PAC, but the DCCC and House Majority PAC haven’t entered the district.
So what do we know?
The early-vote data show stronger Democratic participation and weaker Republican participation than at this point last year. Not much more. They don’t establish what’s coming on Election Day. They certainly don’t confirm that Mullock is leading. NJ-02 is more competitive than its previous “safe” rating suggests, but its recent voting history and the other relevant factors still afford Van Drew a substantial baseline advantage and a steep hill for the name recognition-challenged Mullock to climb with the time remaining.
If Republicans have a solid election day? And Mullock’s early vote party ID edge stays significantly below 20,000 through Sunday night? Don’t expect any surpises in South Jersey.
