Economists and financial experts agree — 2026 will mark an unprecedented year for tax refunds:- USA TODAY: “The average refund in 2025 was $2,939, IRS data showed. This year, refunds could be as much as 30% more due to new provisions from President Donald Trump’s mega tax and spending bill, according to James Knightley, chief international economist at Dutch bank ING.”
- CBS News: “Many Americans could see heftier tax refunds next year when they file their 2025 tax returns, largely due to new provisions enacted through the Republicans’ ‘one big, beautiful bill’ act that are retroactive to the start of the current year, according to an analysis from Oxford Economics. Total taxpayer savings could amount to an additional $50 billion through bigger tax refunds or a cut in their 2026 taxes…A $50 billion boost in tax refunds would represent an 18% increase from the $275 billion in refunds the IRS sent this year to nearly 94 million taxpayers who overpaid on their 2024 federal tax returns.”
- The Wall Street Journal: “Refunds on average are expected to come in $1,000 higher than usual this year, according to a study by investment firm Piper Sandler.”
- Business Insider: “The Tax Foundation estimates that the average tax refund will grow from $3,052 in 2024 to $3,800 for tax year 2025. Depending on your income and circumstances, you might get even more back.”
- CNBC: “Tax experts and analysts have agreed that many filers will see bigger refunds… ‘Overall, we’re expecting these changes to increase refunds by 15% to 20% on average,’ Heather Berger, a U.S. economist with Morgan Stanley said…”
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