Quite a few polls still have the race between Biden and Trump well within the margin of error and a few have the two candidates thisclose.
No matter who turns out ahead nationally in the popular vote we all know that such a tally is essentially meaningless because it all comes down to the state-by-state electoral vote. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. That's the magic number. But there is a plausible scenario under which neither candidate reaches that number and they tie at 269 electoral votes each. Here's how The Hill explained it in a recent analysis which conjectured regarding each candidate's possible path to an electoral victory:
One unlikely but possible scenario is a 269-269 Electoral College tie between Biden and Trump. That would happen if Biden keeps the blue wall with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, but Trump wins the other battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, plus Maine and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional districts.
If that happens, the election would be decided by the House, with each state receiving one vote decided by a majority of its delegation. Under the current makeup of the House, Republicans have a majority of the House delegations in 26 states, while Democrats have a majority in 22 states and two state are evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.
This likely means that Biden would have to win the Electoral College outright, because Trump would be better positioned to win in a tiebreaker decided by the House.
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