1,237 delegates by the July convention good?
The only honest answer: we still don’t know, and we might NOT know until New Jersey (yes, New Jersey) votes on June 7th.
The bottom line? Notwithstanding large-scale and sustained #NeverTrump opposition, he’s likely at about 699 delegates as of this morning. More than half of the way there. We still need to see how a few more counts (notably Missouri) end up but a sizable delegate lead – 278 over Ted Cruz – is unambiguously good news for Trumpies.
The bad news for Trumpies is getting a whole lot less attention from a media hungry for the carnival-like atmosphere of a ratings-rich Trump vs. Clinton showdown.
Trump’s 699 delegates represent only about 47% of delegates awarded to date. By my math, in order to win on the first ballot in Cleveland, he’ll need to win something like 54% or better of remaining delegates in play. Momentum could trump math soon enough but 54%+ might be harder to do than you’d think with the front runner under-performing in the American West (where many voters still need to weigh in) and facing a partially-consolidated conservative opposition now that Marco Rubio is out and likely to endorse Ted Cruz. Donald Trump still hasn’t hit 50% or better in these contests (49.3% in Massachusetts was high high water mark) and he’s falling far short in most. Does Kasich give Trump trouble in the Midwest (e.g. Wisconsin) like he did in Ohio?
It’s also definitely worth considering that Cruz would’ve beaten Trump in at least two states last night – Missouri and North Carolina – if it had been a one-on-one race. Will we ever get to that point after Kasich’s Ohio stand?
This is where the Garden State comes in. For the reasons meticulously laid our for you above, Donald Trump MAY need to big wins in the proportional state of New York (April 19th) and winner-take-all New Jersey (June 7th) contest, and even big wins in his own backyard might not be enough to win on the first ballot, by the way, if he continues at his current pace.
What’s clear is that New Jersey’s 51 delegates are now officially far more likely than not to be strongly contested come the spring.
All the signs are there. I’m told Governor Christie’s lieutenants are already recruiting field operatives for the Trump campaign inside the Garden State. They can count just the same as we can, folks. You heard it here first: with Trump polling very well here, and having already won the Atlantic and Mercer county GOP endorsements, don’t be surprised to see Trump get put over the top by Christie’s home state notwithstanding the Governor’s own deep unpopularity. At the risk of sounding conspiratorial, maybe that’s why the Donald is trashing his chief endorser? To shore up his N.J. polling position?
If it plays out that way, Chris Christie will then – not without an ironic tinge – be able to claim having done more to help Trump than anyone else in the Republican Party; arresting Marco Rubio’s momentum in New Hampshire will look to have been only an appetizer.
If Trump doesn’t clinch? Either through losing N.J. or some combination of other mathematical setbacks?
Any theory pertaining to how Cleveland will end up is pure speculation.
“If we don’t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I’m for none of the above,” former Speaker John Boehnerreportedly told Politico. “They all had a chance to win. None of them won. So I’m for none of the above. I’m for Paul Ryan to be our nominee.” The former speaker endorsing the current speaker is news even if you hate them both. They’re not alone either at least in their desire for consensus conclusion. At least 36% of your fellow Republicans tell pollsters they’re firmly #NeverTrump. We won’t beat Hilldawg with that many defections.
The ball’s (likely) in your court, Garden State. Choose wisely.