Midterms: GOP Retains Healthy 8-Point Advantage

From Rasmussen Reports:

The 2022 midterm elections are now 116 days away, and Republicans have an eight-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The Republican lead is unchanged since last week, when they led 48%-40%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In July 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a six-point advantage (46% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on July 10-14, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and an 11-point advantage among independents. While 87% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, just 77% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 41% would vote Republican and 30% would vote Democrat, while 12% would vote for some other candidate and 16% are undecided.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 24% of black voters and 41% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of black voters, 37% of whites and 36% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed in the latest findings, with men (50%) now five points more likely than women voters (45%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was nine points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 16-point margin, 48% to 32%, but 53% of voters ages 40-64 and 56% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Republican support is highest among entrepreneurs and retirees, while Democrats do best among government employees.

Republicans lead 50%-38%among voters with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, while Democrats have a 14-point advantage, 49% to 35%, among voters with annual incomes over $200,000.

While a majority of American voters still have a favorable opinion of the U.S. Supreme Court, Democrats have turned against the court and would support radical changes to the institution.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has captured nearly all of the eastern Donbas region, but American voters don’t believe Ukraine should be willing to give up territory in a negotiated peace with Russia.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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