The following superb commentary by Matt Rooney is cross posted from Save Jersey:
Republicans presently cling to a narrow 220 to 213 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, Save Jerseyans, a single seat net gain cycle-over-cycle (though two seats in California remain undecided which could easily end up in the Democrat column). Coupled with the fact that President-elect Trump is poaching multiple members for his cabinet? The lower chamber’s balance of power will remain precarious for the super-thin GOP majority for the next two years.
So why did Republicans pass on an obvious – and clearly badly-needed – pick-up opportunity in North Jersey?
I’m referring to the 9th Congressional District where scrappy 2024 Republican nominee Billy Prempeh, a network engineer born to immigrants from Ghana, ran first in 2020 (and lost by a lot) and again in 2022 (when he lost by a lot less). He’s an undeniable champ if you’re judging him by cycle-over-cycle progress.
The second time around, this young black MAGA activist only fell short of dethroning long-time incumbent Democrat Bill Pascrell by 11-points in a year where Republicans were stumbling all over the map in the post-Dobbs environment despite initial high hopes. In 2024? He lost by a single point to Nellie Pou, 49% to 48%.
“I think what the Democrat Party has forgotten is they look at people from the Arabic community, the Black community, the Spanish, the Israeli … I don’t look at people that way. I look at people as Americans because that’s what we all are,” the affable, hulking, and usually dapper Prempeh told CBS heading into Election Week.
Many of Billy’s constituents agreed with him. Freshman Democrat Nellie Pou now “has a tough job ahead of her,” as Joey Fox of The New Jersey Globe correctly observed.
Joey is arguably understating Pou’s plight. We can’t lose sight of the fact that NJ-09 is comprised of portions of Bergen, Passaic, and Hudson counties. Passaic AND Paterson lie inside this dense, diverse NYC metro district. A Republican hasn’t led this district (under different but geographically nearby boundaries) since the mid-1980s when a young Democrat named Bob Torricelli defeated Harold Hollenbeck.
But Democrats may not have anything to fear until Republicans shift from a reactive to proactive posture. There was every indication that this district could and should be competitive this year. For starters, Prempeh finished closer to his Democrat opponent in 2022 than Republicans in other New Jersey districts who spent millions of dollars (Billy reportedly raised only five-figures in 2024). Republicans have found increasing success at the county-level in Passaic County in recent cycles, and Passaic factors significantly into this district. Meanwhile, poll-after-poll this cycle showed Donald Trump doing historically well with Arab, black, Hispanic, and working class white voters who make up a sizable percentage of this district’s population.
The signs were there. A single-point finish in NJ-09 may be a tad surprising to many, but it shouldn’t be a shock to anyone who’s been paying attention. So instead of wasting millions on – for example – that fat asshole Larry Hogan in Maryland who ultimately lost by a wide margin, national Republicans could and should have invested several or even a few hundred thousand dollars in a robust voter registration and early vote chase program in NJ-09. Can you imagine what a couple of Scott Presslers with a gaggle of paid volunteers on retainer could’ve accomplished if given the opportunity and means?
Billy is already throwing his hat in the ring for 2026 and asking for donations. While November announcements and “fourth time’s the charm” runs are cringe under ordinary circumstances… can anyone blame this man for believing when he came as close as he did without party support?
“No more likes on social media! And high fives in Public! We can win! I need your support for 2026! I need you to donate frequently and often! We don’t have a machine like them,” Prempeh tweeted on Thursday.
What he arguably needs more than money, or more accurately as a prerequisite for more resources, is a change in attitude among the GOP political and donor classes. They need to start behaving proactively, yes, but also come to terms with the fact that the mask-wearing TDS moms of affluent suburbs and their husbands who sit to pee aren’t coming home to the Republican coalition anytime soon. The “cool kids” also need to quit turning their noses up at the new kids. President Trump is developing a successful and historic rural-urban coalition, and the path to a stronger GOP House majority and, dare I dream, a RED Jersey both run through districts like NJ-09.
The Establishment types ultimately need to forget what they think they know, step out of their comfort zones, and quit chasing people who will never love us. That’s exactly what the Trump campaign did this year and it worked. It can work for the rest of the party, too, if they want it. But they have to want it as much as we do and Billy Prempeh certainly does.
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