Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Trump Trailing Badly? Well, NO! Not Any More!

Things are looking up for the Trump campaign today.
The latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll has President Trump's approval rating at 48%. That's one of Trump's highest ratings so far and it's the same number that was scored by Barack Obama at this point in the race when he sought re-election in 2012. Remember, Obama won that one handily over Mitt Romney.
But it gets better. In Rasmussen's weekly head-to-head matchup, President Trump has jumped back into the race and now trails Joe Biden by just three points. That's practically within the margin of error and makes this a veritable dead heat.
The Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Biden earning 47% support among likely U.S. voters to Trump’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate. Four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
It's hard to believe, but a week ago,  Biden held a 10-point lead over Trump – 50% to 40%. Could it be that Biden has already peaked? We dare not allow ourselves to be so confident, but we're heartened by these latest figures nonetheless.
And remember: this is a poll of likely voters, not registered voters. Likely voters is always a more accurate poll. Beware of other polls which survey registered voters or "all voters."
This new Rasmussen survey finds Trump with an impressive 79% of the Republican vote. Biden has the support of 76% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, it’s Biden 44%, Trump 38%. That may not sound so good but it's a marked improvement among independents. A week ago, Biden had a 12-point lead among independents.
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted July 8-9 and 12-14, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.  See methodology.
Bottom line: There's still much work to be done, Trumpsters. Don't even think about being over-confident. But keep the faith, because Rasmussen was one of only two or three polls (out of hundreds) that got it right last time. So, this is really big news!

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