It's still to early to have any indication of who the 2012 Republican nomine for president will be.
Way too early.
Consider the following:
In 2004, the last time an incumbent president stood for reelection, Howard Dean was the early Democratic frontrunner, and he polled best against George W. Bush. John Kerry (the eventual nominee) was always a few points behind. But once Kerry became the frontrunner in early 2008, he started to run away with it. Rasmussen notes: "Polls conducted a year-and-a-half before an election provide a snapshot of where things are today but give little indication of what the mood might be on Election Day."
In the 2008 race, John McCain never took the lead in a national primary poll until December 31, 2007.
And let's not forget that in 1979, many people still considered Ronald Reagan a has-been, a loser and a kook. Reagan seemed to be faltering until that pivotal debate ion New Hampshire in the beginning of 1980 when he seized the moment and began to gain on George H. W. Bush. The elder Bush eventually became Reagan's running mate in 1980.
A clearer picture of things will begin to emerge toward the beginning of the new year.
But for now, it's still too early.
Patience, patience . . . . .