Jon Runyan has all of the momentum in this race against career politician, John Adler.
Here are the key points from the poll:
1) Among likely voters, the race is a statistical tie. John Adler, who has spent millions of dollars in the past two years buying himself almost 100 percent name ID, only earns 41% of the vote against Jon Runyan’s 39%. The margin of error is 2 percent, making this a statistical tie.
2) Republican and Independent voters are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting this year. According to the poll memo, “only 42 percent of Democrats rate themselves as ‘very enthusiastic’ about voting in the upcoming election, compared to 58 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of independents.”
3) John Adler has been stuck around 40% in every poll released. John Adler voted with Jon Corzine 99% of the time in Trenton and now his poll numbers look exactly like Corzine’s did last year. This number spells serious trouble for Congressman Adler, especially given his almost universal name ID. Almost 60 percent of the likely voters in the 3rd District do NOT want Adler to be re-elected.
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Photo of Jon Runyan copyright 2010 by Dan Cirucci.